Force Generation Professional Support Services (N0024426R3107)
The Navy told offerors that price was the least important evaluation factor, and that technical and past performance combined were significantly more important. On paper, that might suggest going for a premium solution. But industry veterans know what the customer says it values isn’t always what drives the award. The award still came in at an aggressive price point.
The Opportunity
NAVSUP Fleet Logistics Center San Diego competed this SDVOSB set-aside on SeaPort-NxG as a best value tradeoff. The firm-fixed-price effort supports MESG ONE with training curricula, readiness programs, exercise planning, and Echelon V/VI training management.
The Prediction
HXG1 processed the full solicitation package, including the RFP, amendment, Q&As, and government pricing template. HXG1 predicted the total evaluated price at $6,552,297. The signal here was for aggressive pricing in line with typical bid behavior for Navy Services bids.
The Award
When the Navy announced the award, the Government took the uncommon step of releasing an unredacted contract document showing annual prices and a total price of $6,597,559. HXG1 came within $45,262 (0.69%) of the award.
|
Year |
Award |
HXG1 |
Variance |
|
Base |
$1,287,112 |
$1,254,333 |
-2.5% |
|
Option 1 |
$1,287,112 |
$1,277,920 |
-0.7% |
|
Option 2 |
$1,327,400 |
$1,311,978 |
-1.2% |
|
Option 3 |
$1,327,400 |
$1,336,518 |
+0.7% |
|
Option 4 |
$1,368,535 |
$1,371,548 |
+0.2% |
|
Total |
$6,597,559* |
$6,552,297 |
-0.69% |
*The CLIN level detail has a $3K difference from total contract award value published on SAM.gov
Stepped Escalation Makes for a Different Path, Same Destination
Access to CLIN-level award values gives us the chance to see how different bidders approach pricing strategy. In this case, the awardee escalated in steps. It held pricing flat for two years, stepped up 2.5%, held again, and then stepped up another 2.5%. HXG1 modeled a steady 2% annual escalation with a base year price that was 2.5% below the award price for the same period. The yearly figures moved above and below each other, but the five-year totals, which are what evaluators compare, landed less than one percent apart.
The Lesson We All Know: Best Value Still Has a Price Target
The salary and rate profile for this firm-fixed-price contract would be difficult for many bidders to stomach, given the required clearances and experience levels (see below). In many other federal services markets, HXG1 would expect a requirement like this to price at market par, which here would have been about $7.9M, roughly 20% above the award. "Price least important" does not mean price isn't important. In this market, it is often the deciding factor.
HXG1 Real-Time Market Analytics
HXG1 Pricing Posture: MKT A (Aggressive Market Position)
MKT A represents a highly competitive pricing posture characterized by aggressive labor-cost and indirect-rate assumptions relative to the broader market.
Labor Model and Staffing Profile
Labor Model: FFP with government-provided labor-category qualifications
LOE: 8 FTE
Weighted Average Experience: 8+ years
Clearance Score: 5.76
Base-Year Weighted Salary (MKT A): ~$99K
HXG1 Predicted Program Sell Rate: $81.61/hour
Award-Implied Sell Rate: ~$82.17/hour
Award-Effective Escalation: 1.24%
REGO Score: 579